The Fed is finally cutting rates, but banks aren't in the clear just yet

cnbc.com:

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Falling interest rates are usually good news for banks, especially when the cuts aren't a harbinger of recession.

That's because lower rates will slow the migration of money that's happened over the past two years as customers shifted cash out of checking accounts and into higher-yielding options like CDs and money market funds.

When the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by half a percentage point last month, it signaled a turning point in its stewardship of the economy and telegraphed its intention to cut rates by another two full percentage points, according to the central bank's projections, boosting prospects for banks.

But the ride probably won't be a smooth one: Persistent concerns over inflation could mean the Fed doesn't cut rates as much as expected and Wall Street's projections for improvements in net interest income — the difference in what a bank earns by lending money or investing in securities and what it pays depositors — may need to be dialed back.

«The market is bouncing around based on the fact that inflation seems to be reaccelerating, and you wonder if we will see the Fed pause,» said Chris Marinac, research director at Janney Montgomery Scott, in an interview. «That's my struggle.»

So when JPMorgan Chase kicks off bank earnings on Friday, analysts will be seeking any guidance that managers can give on net interest income in the fourth quarter and beyond. The bank is expected to report $4.01 per share in earnings, a 7.4% drop from the year-earlier period.

While all banks are expected to ultimately benefit from the Fed's easing cycle, the timing and magnitude of that shift is unknown, based on both the rate environment and the interplay between how sensitive a bank's assets and