China gears up for a big week as markets await U.S. elections and stimulus details

cnbc.com:

BEIJING — The size of China's highly anticipated stimulus plans will likely depend on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, analysts said.

Investors expect Beijing to announce details on fiscal support Friday. That's when the standing committee of the National People's Congress — China's parliament — is due to wrap up a five-day meeting. The same gathering last year oversaw a rare increase in the fiscal deficit.

This year, the meeting's timing means any details will be out just days after the U.S. has voted Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat rival Kamala Harris in as the next president. Polls are set to close Tuesday local time.

«The size of China's fiscal stimulus package would be around 10~20% bigger under a Trump win than under the scenario of a Harris win,» Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, said in a note last week.

He cautioned that most of China's challenges are domestic, though there will be some impact from the U.S. election result.

Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on U.S. imports from China by 60% — or reportedly by even 200% in an extreme scenario. Harris, currently vice president, has not yet signaled a major departure from the Biden administration's approach of restricting China's access to advanced technology.

More tariffs would hit China's exports, a bright spot in an economy grappling with a real estate slump and tepid consumer demand.

Increased trade restrictions would require China to rely more on domestic demand to boost growth, Zhu Bin, chief economist of Nanhua Futures, said in a video presentation last week. That's according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language comments.

«Without question we can be certain of one thing — if Trump wins the election, China's