The EU is facing many difficulties, but Brexit isn’t one of them
Two years after Brexit formally took effect on 31 January 2020, and a year since the UK’s exit from the single market and customs union, we can attempt a provisional economic stocktake for both sides.
Nearly 52% of UK voters supported Brexit in the 2016 referendum. Nearly 100% of citizens elsewhere in the bloc were shocked by the result, and the first concern was that Brexit could mark the unravelling of the whole European project. That did not happen: indeed, quite the opposite. Even in the most Eurosceptic countries there was an increase in support for the European Union, a sort of closing of the ranks. There was a clear risk that the EU would become disunited in the buildup to Brexit. But again, it did not happen. All countries gave a strong mandate to the European Commission, and stood united.
Today, British politics appears increasingly folded in on itself, and the British economy is arguably less outward-looking than before the referendum. Countless questions remain unresolved with the commission, and mutual trust between London and Brussels has long since collapsed.
From the EU, the drama of the Brexit negotiations was watched with mixed feelings. Initial regret shifted to a desire to limit the damage. Some economic opportunities to fill the gaps left by the UK opened up. Brexit was clearly going to be a loss for everyone, but far greater for the UK than for any continental European economy.
The negative impact on trade, so far, is substantial for the UK. The Centre for European Reform recently estimated that there has been an 11.2% negative impact on trade as a result of Brexit. The UK share of world trade has fallen by a further 15% compared to pre-referendum projections.
Assessing the impact of Brexit on the EU
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