What have Nord Stream 2 and gas got to do with the Ukraine standoff?
Gas is not just a source of energy, sometimes it is a political weapon. As western countries weigh possible sanctions against Russia for an invasion of Ukraine, the future of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline hangs in the balance. But it’s complicated. The EU gets 41% of its gas from Russia; Russia earns 60% of its import revenues from the bloc. The crisis over Ukraine comes as Europe is struggling to deal with soaring gas prices and internal divisions over how to wean itself off fossil fuels in response to the climate emergency.
Nord Stream 2 is a 750-miles pipeline connecting Russia and Germany, with the potential to supply 26m German homes. The pipeline has been completed but has not yet certified by Germany’s energy regulator.
It’s much more than another engineering project. The Baltic Sea pipeline bypasses Ukraine and is seen as depriving Kyiv of lucrative transit fees. One former Polish foreign minister even likened it to the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop pact that carved up eastern Europe between Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia.
The US has insisted the pipeline will not move forward if Russia invades Ukraine. Somewhat less emphatically, Germany’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, has said the pipeline would be up for discussion as part of sanctions measures. The EU needs unanimity among 27 member states to impose sanctions. While Germany’s voice would probably be decisive, stopping Nord Stream 2 would need support from other member states, such as Austria and Bulgaria, that are highly dependent on Russian gas and nervous about antagonising Moscow. They are among 10 member states in central and eastern Europe that import more than 75% of their gas from their eastern neighbour. EU officials fear any move against Nord Stream 2
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