Can the Bitcoin (BTC) Price Snap its Recent Run of Ugly May Returns?
Since 2011, Bitcoin (BTC) has posted an average return of 18.3% in May, according to data presented by bitcoinmonthlyreturn.com.
However, two of the worst three Mays in Bitcoin’s history have come in the last two years.
In May 2021, Bitcoin shed a stunning 35.38% of its value.
In May 2022, Bitcoin dropped a more modest, but still ugly 15.56%.
And it’s not been the best start to May 2023.
The Bitcoin price is already down around 2.0%, with BTC/USD last changing hands across major exchanges in the $28,600s.
That still leaves the cryptocurrency up around 73% for the year.
But traders are nonetheless fretting that history could repeat itself once again and Bitcoin could shed a significant portion of its value between now and the end of the month.
Macro risks certainly hold the possibility of weighing heavily on the Bitcoin price.
The US Federal Reserve announces their latest policy decision on Wednesday – a tenth consecutive rate hike is expected (of 25 bps, taking rates to the 5.0-5.25% range), and Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to push back against money market expectations that the Fed will be cutting interest rates later this year.
For now, still elevated inflation and a still robust US labor market justify continued tightening.
There is a risk that if upcoming US jobs and inflation data are sufficiently strong, this could push back against the market’s expectations for rate cuts later this year, resulting in the US dollar and US yields rising, which could hit Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, after a jump in March as the Fed stepped in with liquidity support for the banking sector, US liquidity continues to drop, presenting a further potential macro tailwind for Bitcoin.
While Bitcoin is for now holding above its 50-Day Moving Average in the
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