Want to know if US is in a recession? You’re asking the wrong question

theguardian.com:

As someone who writes about small business and runs a small business and serves hundreds of small business clients I often get asked: “How are small businesses doing?” Recently the Big Question I’m being asked is whether or not we’re “in a recession”. The answer – like everything these days – is complicated.

Sure, many can say we’re in a “recession”. The economy has shrunk two quarters in a row, which is one widely used definition. Both consumer and small business confidence have plummeted. The stock market is in bear territory. Inflation is high and interest rates are rising. Worldwide demand is tapering.

But then others point to our record low unemployment levels, a relatively small level of debt delinquency, high household net worth, rising income and spending, increasing retail sales and a still healthy banking sector.

All of this makes people scratch their heads when they ask whether or not the country is in a recession. And what about the nation’s 30m small businesses? Are they seeing a recession?

I can’t answer that question. Neither can anyone else. Why? Because it’s the wrong question. The right question is whether your industry is in a recession. Because to anyone running a business, that’s what matters.

Look at the real estate and construction industry – they are certainly having difficulties. After two years of rising prices and high demand, they’re now weathering a significant cooling in the market. Construction spending has decreased. A well-known mortgage monitoring services has reported a “record-setting slowdown” in home price growth. Large firms in the industry like Redfin and Compass have already announced layoffs. More are likely to come.

Small manufacturers are also facing headwinds, as are financial