Wall Street analysts say Elon Musk is the clear auto tariff winner: 'Tesla wins, Detroit bleeds'

cnbc.com:

Several analysts on Wall Street see a clear winner emerging from President Donald Trump's new auto tariff policy: Tesla.

Trump announced on Wednesday that all cars not made in the U.S. would be slapped with a 25% tariff beginning next week. The news sent shares of major American car producers in diverging directions in Thursday's trading as Wall Street analyzed who would be most and least hurt by the policy change.

So far, multiple analysts see Elon Musk's electric vehicle giant as a relative beneficiary given its domestic production. The stock rose more than 5%.

Put simply: «Tesla wins, Detroit bleeds,» wrote Bernstein analyst Daniel Roeska in a Thursday note to clients.

Roeska called Tesla the «clear structural winner» of the policy, adding that it has a localized market share and is «better insulated» from trade risk. On the other hand, he said Ford and General Motors could see declines of up to 30% in earnings before interest and taxes this year.

«For everyone else, this is a margin reset and real drag on near-term earnings power,» he said of companies besides Tesla.

UBS analyst Joseph Spak noted both Tesla and competitor Rivian could «fare better» with 100% of production in the U.S. Rivian shares also were nearly 5% higher Thursday.

But for others in the industry, Spak said there will «clearly be some pain» as tariffs take effect.

TD Cowen analyst Itay Michaeli said Tesla's substantial domestic sourcing helps make the company a «relative winner.» This is especially true for Tesla's Model Y, which competes in the midsize crossover segment, a category that will now see close to half of all vehicles hit with levies. Presumably, a portion of the tariffs is likely to be passed on to consumers, making these vehicles more