It is questionable how much longer current Covid-19 vaccines will be used as they have largely done their job in preventing mass deaths, and scientists should focus on developing a vaccine that stops transmission of the virus, according to leading scientist Sir John Bell.
The huge success of Covid vaccines in countries able to get them has led to sharp declines in deaths and severe disease from the virus, even though the latest Covid variant, Omicron, has spread rapidly.
“We need a new vaccine to stop transmissions and there are lots of interesting ideas,” said Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University and a former member of the UK vaccine taskforce who has worked on the Oxford/AstraZeneca Covid jab.
“Deaths from the disease, those really awful deaths, had largely been eliminated by the late spring [2021], and they rumbled along, at a very low level and very close to baseline, and they’ve continued to rumble along almost in a flat line since then,” he said.
The baseline represents the number of UK deaths that should be expected based on average mortality data before the pandemic.
However, the spread of coronavirus remains a problem, leading to hospitalisation of vulnerable people, keeping many off work and leaving a number of people with long-term health issues. Scientists are pinning their hopes on nasal sprays, rather than shots in the arm, which aim to produce strong immune protection in the nose and throat, to block Covid infections at the gates. More than a dozen trials are under way.
“It’s an interesting question whether any of the [current] vaccines have a long-term future,” Bell said. “None of them are very good at stopping transmissions,” he said and as variants emerged “they get less good over time” at
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