More than 23 million people in the UK used virtually no cash last year, while notes and coins will account for just 6% of payments within a decade, a report predicts.
The findings, from the banking body UK Finance, are likely to prompt concern that millions of people could be left behind as the shift to a cashless society accelerates.
However, other data has indicated cash is making a comeback as a result of the cost of living crisis, with many under-pressure households returning to notes and coins to help them budget.
UK Finance said debit cards were the most-used method during 2021, accounting for 48% of all payments and reflecting the continued growth in popularity of contactless cards.
The number of cash transactions fell by 1.7% last year, though it remained the second most commonly used method, accounting for 15% of payments.
However, the number of people turning their backs on cash surged in 2021. This could be because some businesses went card-only during the pandemic, or stopped accepting cash for a time. There are also indications that some consumers avoided using banknotes and coins for fear they might transmit Covid.
During 2021, 23.1 million consumers either used no notes or coins, or used them only about once a month. That was up sharply on the 13.7 million consumers the previous year who did not use cash. That number has grown rapidly: in 2018 it was 5.4 million people; in 2016 it was 2.9 million. At the same time, 1.1 million consumers used mainly cash for day-to-day shopping, according to the 2021 data.
UK Finance said it expected cash usage to continue to fall. It forecast that by 2031, notes and coins would account for only 6% of all payments made in the UK.
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