This Indicator Suggests Bitcoin Holders Are Selling Coins to Newbies – What Does This Mean for BTC Price?
According to data from crypto analytics firm Glassnode, the 90-Day Bitcoin’s Realized HODL Multiple has risen to its highest level since May 2022, when Bitcoin’s price was around $30,000, as opposed to current levels in the upper $22,000s. The Realize HODL Ratio (RHODL) is a ratio of the number of Bitcoins that moved less than one week ago versus the number of coins that moved one to two years ago.
Glassnode says that higher values indicate a dominance in 1-week-old coins while lower values indicate a dominance in 1y-2y old coins. The Realized HODL Multiple is an oscillator that is calculated by dividing the current RHODL by a simple moving average (SMA) of the RHODL over the past 365 days.
The crypto analytics firm states that “when the RHODL Multiple transitions into an uptrend over a 90-day window, it indicates that USD-denominated wealth is starting to shift back towards new demand inflows”. It “indicates profits are being taken, the market is capable of absorbing them… (and) that longer-term holders are starting to spend coins” Glassnode state.
The RHODL Multiple was last around 0.85, having been bottomed under 0.5 in June 2022. Historically, when the RHODL Multiple recovers from a drop under 0.5, this has been a good indicator of an upcoming Bitcoin bull market.
The rise in the RHODL Multiple comes in wake of Bitcoin’s price having rallied nearly 40% so far this month, with the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization on course for its best monthly performance since October 2021. BTC/USD was last changing hands in the upper $22,000s, as traders, analysts and investors weigh up whether the latest rally is the start of a longer-term push higher, or a so-called “bear market trap”.
And the recent positive
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