Sunak’s ‘jam tomorrow’ offer won’t taste sweet in 2024

theguardian.com:

Rishi Sunak has put in place one of the essential building blocks of a Tory victory at the next general election – a cut in income tax. During his Commons speech last week, the chancellor was cheered by backbench Conservatives, who believe the promise of a 1p cut in the basic rate to 19p before the likely date in 2024 would improve their chances of re-election.

But Sunak, always keen to portray himself as a tax cutter at heart, came in for ridicule once independent figures showed that the average household would pay more tax in two years’ time, even with the 1p reduction in place. That will be ensured by next month’s rise in national insurance contributions and a four-year freeze on personal tax thresholds, which means more earned income is subject to tax.

Never mind, say Sunak supporters, 1p is just the opening bid. Once the recovery from the pandemic is in full flow, and the inflationary spiral triggered by the Ukraine war has abated, a clampdown on public spending over a couple of years will allow for a 2p or even 3p cut.

In an increasingly uncertain world, it is understandable when hard-pressed families are tempted to vote against tax rises. When the government says there is little it can do to protect them and the businesses they work for, and uses its full might to denounce those who propose exploiting low interest rates to fund extra support by borrowing more, demands for lower taxes are expected to grow.

Only a few months ago, Sunak would have been forgiven for believing he would be leading the Conservatives into that election. The party’s tolerance of Boris Johnson’s persistent lying was growing thin and it seemed likely he would be ditched before the year was out.

Boris may still get the boot, but the chancellor