Disclaimer: The findings of the following analysis are the sole opinions of the writer and should not be considered investment advice.
Since November 2021, Stellar Lumens has registered a series of lower highs on the price charts. There were individual rallies upward for the crypto asset, such as a 28% rally in early February and another 30% move upward in March. Yet, the overall direction has been to the south, and this trend appeared likely to continue in the days to come.
Source: XLM/USDT on TradingView
In mid-March, along with most other altcoins, XLM also saw a rapid surge upwards. It rose from $0.18 to $0.24, a near 30% move in just over two weeks. In April and May, the sentiment shifted bearish once more, as it had been since January.
Stellar Lumens fell beneath the $0.18 support and retested the same level as resistance before plunging yet again. In May, it reached the $0.1 lows and revisited these lows in June as well.
The market structure was firmly bearish in recent weeks. To the north, the $0.125 and $0.154 resistance levels loom large. The $0.154 is a local high and would need to be broken for the longer-term structure to flip to the bullish side.
The $0.12-$0.13 resistance zone appeared to be firmly in the hands of the sellers. A move to this area would more likely see the continuation of the downtrend than a trend reversal.
Source: XLM/USDT on TradingView
The momentum indicators on the daily timeframe also painted a bearish picture. The RSI has been below neutral 50 since April, a sign of the downward momentum behind XLM. The MACD was also beneath the zero line. Hence, at press time, the momentum remained pointed southward, although a small push upward to $0.12-$0.13 could occur.
To exacerbate buyers’ woes, the OBV
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