Rishi Sunak opens by highlighting the war in Ukraine and says Britain’s economic strength underpins freedom and liberty. The chancellor says he will respond to the conflict by building a stronger, more secure economy for the UK.
“The actions we have taken to sanction Putin’s regime are not cost free for us at home. The invasion of Ukraine presents a risk to our recovery as it does to countries around the world,” he says.
Jessica Elgot, chief political correspondent: The invasion of Ukraine certainly puts an additional burden on the UK economy but consumers were already facing significant pressures from inflation and energy prices, as well as Sunak’s tax rise. Using the war in Ukraine to set the tone for the statement looks like the beginning of a strategy to at least partly attribute the pain of the cost of living to the crisis as a way of swerving political blame for the growth slowdown which was predicted well before Russia invaded.
The chancellor says forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility show the economy will grow by 3.8% this year.
GDP will grow by 1.8% next year, 2.1% in 2024, 1.8% in 2025, and 1.7% in 2026.
In October, the OBR had forecast growth of 6% f0r 2022 as the UK economy recovers from the Covid pandemic.
The economy grew by 7.5% in 2021, after a fall of 9.4% in 2020 – the biggest decline for a century – during the first wave of the pandemic.
Jessica Elgot, chief political correspondent: Sunak uses these figures as a way to emphasise the difficult choices made in the rest of the statement. Again, he links them directly to the Ukraine crisis, saying choices to sanction Putin’s regime were not cost free.
The chancellor says the OBR forecasts inflation will average 7.4% this year.
Fuel duty will be cut
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