Right-wing coalition on course to win Italy election, says study
Italy's far-right, right-wing and centrist bloc is on track to win a broad majority in both houses of parliament at next month's national election, benefiting from divisions among its opponents.
The conservative alliance leads opinion polls ahead of the 25 September ballot, with the far-right Fratelli d'Italia or Brothers of Italy set to be the largest single party.
On the basis of its election promises of tax cuts and higher pensions, a win by the conservative alliance may strain Italy's public finances, while the bloc would also be expected to crack down on illegal immigration.
A study by the Cattaneo Institute think tank, based on the latest polls, suggests the alliance could elect 245 lawmakers out of 400 at the Chamber and 127 out of 200 at the Senate.
The conservative bloc includes Giorgia Meloni's far-right Brothers of Italy, Matteo Salvini's right-wing League, Silvio Berlusconi's conservative Forza Italia and several minor centrist allies.
The centre-left, led by Enrico Letta's Democratic Party (PD), would elect 107 lawmakers in the lower chamber and 51 in the Senate, while the rest of the seats would be divided among parties outside these main blocs, the study found.
Italy's election law favours parties that form broad alliances. Centrist and leftist parties have been struggling to join forces since the election was called last month following the collapse of Mario Draghi's broad "national unity" government.
The latest blow came on Sunday when the centrist Azione party quit an alliance of the PD and small centrist and leftist groups, citing the presence of parties who failed to support Draghi as one of the reasons.
Azione leader Carlo Calenda is now in talks to strike a deal with fellow centrist party Italia Viva led
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