Rich countries must stop producing oil and gas by 2034, says study
Rich countries must end all oil and gas production in the next 12 years, while the poorest nations should be given 28 years, to provide a fair transition away from fossil fuels, according to a study.
The report, led by Prof Kevin Anderson from the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at Manchester University, found that wealthy countries such as the UK, US and Australia had until 2034 to stop all oil and gas production to give the world a 50% chance of preventing devastating climate breakdown, while the poorest nations that are also heavily reliant on fossil fuels should be given until 2050.
Anderson said that while it was now clear there had to be a rapid shift away from “a fossil fuel economy”, it was essential this was done in a fair and equitable way. “There are huge differences in the ability of countries to end oil and gas production, while maintaining vibrant economies and delivering a just transition for their citizens,” he said.
The report examines each country’s wealth and how dependent its economy is on fossil fuel production. It found that many poorer countries would be crippled economically and politically by a rapid move away from oil and gas, while wealthier nations could afford to end fossil fuel production while remaining relatively prosperous.
For example, it found that oil and gas revenue contributed 8% to US GDP but without it the country’s GDP per head would still be around $60,000 (£46,000) – the second highest globally.
Meanwhile, countries such as South Sudan, the Republic of the Congo and Gabon, despite being small producers of oil and gas, have little other economic revenue and would be devastated by a rapid transformation.
Christiana Figueres, the former UN climate chief who oversaw the 2015
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