‘Powder kegs waiting for a spark’: rising costs threaten global unrest, say risk analysts

Britain Argentina Russia Ukraine Sri Lanka Ecuador Sudan Burma Haiti Provident COST covid-19

02.09.2022 - 10:19

Reading now: 490

theguardian.com:

Rising costs of food and energy and the impact of the climate crisis on resources are predicted to increase civil unrest in more than half the world’s countries over the coming months, according to new analysis.

This year has already witnessed large-scale protests as inflation levels soar in Argentina, Ecuador and Sri Lanka, but the worst is yet to come, said risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.

With more than 80% of countries around the world seeing inflation above 6%, socioeconomic risks are reaching critical levels, it said.

“We’re talking about numerous powder kegs around the world simply waiting for that spark to be ignited. We don’t know where that spark will come first,” said Jimena Blanco, the company’s chief analyst.

Analysis published by the company on Friday said 101 out of 198 countries, including the UK and across Europe, now had a heightened risk of conflict and instability.

Only a significant reduction in global food and energy prices can stop the trend of growing civil unrest, it said.

“We’ve seen a lot of big protests around the world this year and we’re seeing inflation accelerating,” said Torbjorn Soltvedt, Verisk’s principal Middle East and north Africa analyst, who led the research. “In parallel, we’ve seen a trend of a weakening of democratic countries and of free speech. That’s why we expect a lot more civil unrest this year and going into next year.”

Counties across Europe face some of the biggest risks of unrest, fuelled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“The situation is so bad in places like Haiti, Myanmar and Sudan that it is hard for them to become much worse. Therefore, countries in Europe that have to date enjoyed much more stable environments are likely to see bigger increases in risk,”