Monero avoids crypto market rout, but XMR price still risks 20% drop by June
Monero (XMR) has shown a surprising resilience against the Federal Reserve's hawkish policies that pushed the prices of most of its crypto rivals — including the top dog Bitcoin (BTC) — lower last week.
XMR's price closed the previous week 2.37% higher at $217, data from Binance shows. In comparison, BTC, which typically influences the broader crypto market, finished the week down 11.55%. The second-largest crypto, Ether (ETH), also plunged 11% in the same period.
While the crypto market wiped off $163.25 billion from its valuation last week, down nearly 9%, Monero's market cap increased by $87.7 million, suggesting that many traders decided to seek safety in this privacy-focused coin.
Monero started the new week with a selloff, with XMR plunging by nearly 4% to around $208 on May 9.
The decline brought the token near its key support level — the 50-week exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave in the chart below) near $214. The wave also coincides with another price floor — the 0.618 Fib line of the Fibonacci retracement graph drawn from the $38-swing low to the $491-swing low.
Interestingly, XMR's price drop is part of a pullback move that began April 21 from about $290. In turn, the reversal to the downside surfaced amid a falling wedge breakout whose upside target comes to be around $490.
That could result in either of these two outcomes: XMR breaks below its support confluence around $214 to test the wedge's upper trendline as support (which also coincides with the token's 200-week EMA near $161.50); OR the token rebounds from the support confluence and continue its move towards the wedge's technical upside target near $490.
The overall crypto market trend looks biased towards bears in a higher interest rate
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