Spooky Solana breakdown begins with SOL price facing a potential 45% drop — here's why

cointelegraph.com:

Solana (SOL) dropped on May 26, continuing its decline from the previous day amid a broader retreat across the crypto market.

SOL price fell by over 13% to around $41.60, its lowest level in almost two weeks. Notably, the SOL/USD pair also broke out of what appears like a "bear pennant," a classic technical pattern whose occurrences typically precede additional downside moves in a market.

In detail, bear pennants appear when the price trades inside a range defined by a falling trendline resistance and rising trendline support.

These patterns resolve after the price breaks below the lower trendline, accompanied by higher volumes. As a rule of technical analysis, traders decide the pennant's profit target after adding the length of the prior's leg lower (called "flagpole") to the breakdown point.

SOL has been undergoing a similar breakdown after closing below its pennant's lower trendline on May 25, as shown below. In theory, Solana's profit target comes to be near $23, down about 45% from today's price.

Nonetheless, SOL's bear pennant breakdown appears without a spike in trading volumes, suggesting that traders are not fully convinced with the move. That could prompt the token to retest the pennant's lower trendline as resistance.

Moreover, a successful retaking of the trendline as support risks invalidating the bear pennant setup while bringing the 20-day exponential moving average (20-day EMA; the green wave) near $57.59 in proximity as the next upside target.

Conversely, a pullback could keep SOL's near-$23 profit target in view, with $35.50—the May 12 price floor that preceded a sharp rebound—serving as interim support. 

SOL also trades near a support confluence, comprising multi-month horizontal and rising trendlines.

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