Jim Chalmers’ 2023 budget expected to record first surplus in 15 years

theguardian.com:

Australia’s federal budget is projected to record a $4bn surplus this financial year, which would be the first surplus in 15 years.

The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, has revealed ahead of Tuesday night’s budget that the 2022-23 bottom line has reached surplus, despite the projected $78bn deficit in the Coalition’s March 2022 budget.

The four-year budget projection is now $143bn better off than when the treasury carried out the same projection a year ago for the last Coalition government budget. However, experts warn that, without further reform, the budget is likely to remain in structural deficit, meaning in more normal conditions revenue is still expected to fall short of spending in the medium term.

Over four years, the budget has improved by $143bn compared with the Coalition’s last – although experts warn that, without further reform, the budget is likely to remain in structural deficit, meaning in more normal conditions revenue is still expected to fall short of spending in the medium term.

Chalmers has been preparing the ground for the surprise return to surplus by noting significant improvement in revenue from higher commodity prices, lower unemployment and sooner than expected real wage growth.

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With almost two months still to go in the 2022-23 financial year and $4bn amounting to just 0.6% of the budget’s revenue, the Albanese government has vowed to take a cautious approach, with no Back in Black mugs on budget night.

Governments have been burnt before predicting surpluses that did not eventuate, including Liberal treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s projected surplus in the 2019 budget which became a record deficit after