Is climate change causing the heatwave? Here's the simple science behind Europe's scorching weather
For hundreds of millions of people in Europe, this week’s unbearably hot weather is driving climate change home.
Temperatures in the UK are poised to hit 40C for the first time in recorded history, while France, Portugal, Spain, Greece and Croatia have been battling wildfires for days or even weeks.
We know that global warming is the cause, and it’s a straightforward connection to make during a heatwave. (Though dangerous climate sceptics are still being published in national newspapers, bending over backwards to claim it’s because the Earth is moving closer to the sun).
But if you’re feeling a little hazy on the science, or need some points to persuade the climate inactive in your life, we’ve got you covered.
The planet’s average temperature has risen by 1.1C since pre-industrial levels, largely because of the huge increase in greenhouse gases human activity have unleashed. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the biggest contributor to global warming; its concentration in the atmosphere has soared by 48 per cent between 1750 to 2020.
Like glass in a greenhouse, CO2, methane, nitrous oxide and other gases trap the sun’s heat, causing less warmth to return to space.
As average temperatures rise - ever closer to the 1.5C mark which will be disastrous for many countries - the amount of weather at the ‘extremely hot’ end of the spectrum increases, making extreme heat events more frequent, longer, and more intense.
According to a recent expert study, a heatwave that would have had a one in 10 chance of occurring in any given year in the pre-industrial climate will now occur almost three times more frequently on average and be 1.2C hotter. A heatwave that would have struck one in 50 times will strike five times more often.
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