‘Fundamental Shift’ in Traditional Bitcoin Market Cycle May Be on the Horizon
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There may be a shift coming in the traditional Bitcoin market cycles, as current trends outpace historical patterns, according to the latest CoinMarketCap’s Quarterly Report.
The Q3 report found that the bull market progress is at 40.66%.
Typically, it says, based on historical patterns, bull markets peak 518-546 days after a halving event.
The most recent Bitcoin halving occurred on April 19, 2024.
However, the report found that Bitcoin is ahead of the typical market peak by about 100 days.
This means that a peak may be occurring “significantly earlier than expected,” between mid-May and mid-June 2025.
There are, however, some indications of the evolving broader market dynamics. Primarily, the infrastructure growth is slowing down.
The report noted that this may be an anomaly or the beginning of a longer-term change in market behavior.
It remains to be seen if BTC “will continue to follow historical patterns, or [we are] witnessing a fundamental shift in the crypto cycle,” it said.
Furthermore, a number of signs are pointing to a potential break in Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle.
Specifically, it may be entering a so-called ‘super cycle’ “driven by institutional adoption, ETFs, and changing market dynamics.”
According to the Bitcoin Super Cycle theory, BTC’s price will continue to surge indefinitely against the traditional four-year market cycles that have characterized its price history.
The Correlation with Traditional Assets is another indicator. BTC price movements are progressively correlated with gold and tech stocks,
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