BlackRock has ‘50% chance’ of getting spot Bitcoin ETF approved: Analyst

cointelegraph.com:

Investment management firm BlackRock has a 50% chance of getting its spot Bitcoin (BTC) Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) approved, says Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. 

Balchunas’ prediction comes following an observation made by Elliott Stein, a senior litigation analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, who now pegs the chances of Grayscale winning its case against the SEC at 70%.

Another reason we give spot bitcoin ETF approval 50% chance is our senior legal analyst @NYCStein gives Grayscale a 70% chance of winning case against SEC, who could approve BlackRock's ETF as way to save face using trusted 'adult' TradFi cos & stick it to Grayscale via @JSeyff pic.twitter.com/pHydOcpuQo

Balchunas explained that the SEC may look more favorably upon BlackRock's ETF filing as a way to “save face” by allowing an ETF from a “trusted 'adult' TradFi” firm instead of Grayscale.

Ever since Grayscale appealed the United States Securities Exchange Commission’s decision to reject its application in June 2022, the two parties have engaged in back and forth legal filings in addition to oral testimony heard by three U.S. federal appellate court judges on March 7.

“Grayscale has a 70% chance of winning its lawsuit against the SEC over the company’s bid to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) to a Bitcoin ETF, we believe.”

Stein added that Grayscale’s odds increased from 40% after the parties’ oral arguments reached completion because “all three judges on the panel appeared to side with Grayscale,” based on their “lines of questioning,” Stein said.

Stein said Bloomberg expects a conclusion will be made by August.

Applications for Bitcoin ETFs have been a central focus point for the industry of late, with Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdom Tree