Bitcoin Halfway to Next Halving – What Can History Teach Us?

cryptonews.com:

Bitcoin (BTC) is halfway to its next halving, and analysts are again coming out with their predictions for how the price will respond this time around. But market reactions to Bitcoin halvings in the past have been difficult to predict, and their results usually take time to materialize.

The next Bitcoin halving – the 50% reduction in block rewards paid to miners on the network that occurs about every four years – is expected to happen around March 30, 2024. At that time, the reward will be cut in half, from currently BTC 6.25 to BTC 3.125 per block mined.

Approximately BTC 900 (USD 27m) is currently being generated per day. Following the next halving, that number will fall to BTC 450.

At the previous Bitcoin halving, which took place on May 11 of 2020, Bitcoin’s block reward went from BTC 12.5 to BTC 6.25. As far as the price goes, however, the immediate reaction to the event was perhaps less significant than some had expected (and probably hoped for). BTC ended the day itself slightly lower, but according to some observers, the halving was among the triggers for a major bull run that started just over two months later.

The run, which lasted until April the following year, took BTC to highs of more than USD 60,000. At that point, a major correction halved BTCs price over a period of about 100 days, setting the stage for the second leg of the bull market which took BTC to its all-time high of around USD 69,000 in November 2021.

Nonetheless, we still don’t know how the market will react to the next halving. What we do know, however, is that the rewards to miners will be halved and that the price will therefore have to rise for mining to remain profitable.

And given the widely held notion that the cost of production of new