Why the Bitcoin ‘mid-halving’ price slump will play out differently this time

cointelegraph.com:

Some analysts believe the four-year market cycle is changing and that the halving schedule may no longer determine cyclical conditions as Bitcoin closes in on the mid point between halvings.

The halving is when the amount of Bitcoin (BTC) rewards issued per new block mined is reduced by half. The next halving will happen around May 5, 2024, andl reduce block rewards to 3.125 BTC.

According to author @Alerzio on the Santiment blog on April 4, “the important resistance on the way is $50K.” The blog stated that breaking this level by or around the next mid-halving on April 11 would cast off many doubts as to the possibility that the traditional market cycle has been broken.

With just a few days to go however, Bitcoin is currently down about 3.31% over the past 24 hours and around 6.51% for the week. It is trading at $43,528 according to Cointelegraph data.

Bitcoin has gone through four halvings so far, all of which have seen a similar series of three events over the course of four years as described by Santiment. A divergence from that cycle appears to have begun:

Santiment demonstrated that traditionally after each halving, a bull market took hold where price began to increase along with network activity, followed by a dramatic climax in price leading to an all-time high (ATH). This pattern took place from the most recent May 2020 halving to the November 2021 ATH.

However, an extended bear market usually comes in through the next mid-halving. Santiment notes that the market is now signaling a possible end to that four-year cycle as the network is now near mid-halving, but no extended bear market is yet apparent.

Onchain Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo has made a related observation. On Mar. 20 he tweeted a follow up to his October