To join or not to join? Sweden and Finland to reveal NATO decisions
Finland and Sweden are expected to reveal in the coming days whether they will ask to join the NATO military alliance.
Russia's war in Ukraine has sparked an urgent rethink in both countries.
Coming out in favour of joining would be a historic development for either nation: Sweden has avoided military alliances for more than 200 years, while Finland adopted neutrality after being defeated by the Soviet Union in World War II.
Along with Ukrainian resistance and Western sanctions, if either decided to join it would be one of the most significant ways in which the invasion appears to have backfired on Russian President Vladimir Putin, who cited NATO expansion as one of the reasons for attacking Ukraine.
“There is no going back to the status quo before the invasion,” said Heli Hautala, a Finnish diplomat previously posted to Moscow and a research fellow at the Center for a New American Security in Washington.
Finnish President Sauli Niinisto, the Western leader who appeared to have the best rapport with Putin before the Ukraine war, is expected to announce his stance on NATO membership on Thursday. The governing Social Democratic parties in both countries are set to present their positions this weekend.
If their answer is “yes,” there would be robust majorities in both parliaments for NATO membership, paving the way for formal application procedures to begin right away.
The Finnish Social Democrats led by Prime Minister Sanna Marin are likely to join other parties in Finland in endorsing a NATO application. The situation in Sweden isn't as clear.
The Swedish Social Democrats have always been staunchly committed to nonalignment, but party leader and Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson has said there's a clear “before and after" 24
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