Russian Rubles Could Become 'Worthless' as Allies Target Central Bank After SWIFT Move
After the EU, Canada, and the US agreed to remove selected Russian banks from the SWIFT messaging system, the Russian Central Bank is to be targeted next, which could make rubles "close to worthless."
In a joint statement on Saturday evening, the allies said they commit to ensuring that the Russian banks are disconnected from the international financial system and harm their ability to operate globally.
But what comes as a more unexpected and possibly more painful move is that the allies also said they "commit to imposing restrictive measures that will prevent the Russian Central Bank from deploying its international reserves in ways that undermine the impact of our sanctions."
According to Rob Person, an Associate Professor of International Relations at the US Military Academy in West Point, this would mean that the central bank won't be able to access most of its reserves for currency interventions or exchange dollars and euros for rubles.
"Rubles could (in theory) become close to worthless, with ordinary citizens conducting exchange in dollars. That would have to be on the black market, since it's technically illegal to pay for things with dollars/euros directly. Dollars will be scarce & precious on the street," Person said.
Per Bloomberg data, Russia has about USD 640bn in reserves, while its central bank had 16.4% of its holdings in dollars and 32% in euros at the end of June 2021.
Elina Ribakova, Deputy Chief Economist for the Institute of International Finance, also said that sanctioning Russia’s central bank is likely to have a dramatic effect on the Russian economy and its banking system.
"This would likely lead to massive bank runs and dollarization, with a sharp selloff, drain on reserves -- and, possibly, a full-on
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