NHS could face bill of more than £1bn to fund upcoming pay rise

theguardian.com:

NHS staff look set to get a pay rise of barely half the rate of inflation, a move that will force the health service to make more than £1bn of cuts and could trigger a wave of strikes.

Senior NHS figures expect ministers to award staff an increase of between 4% and 5% when they announce on Tuesday how much the public sector workers will receive in 2022-23.

However, they have warned that even that higher figure could still spark strikes, because health unions have threatened to ballot their members about possible industrial action if this year’s settlement is below inflation, which is running at 9.1%.

The government is due to unveil on Tuesday afternoon details of pay increases for a wide range of public sector workers, including judges, police officers and senior civil servants, as well as specific deals covering NHS staff, doctors and dentists and senior NHS managers.

Ministers originally planned to give NHS staff an uplift of 3%. But the soaring cost of living is thought to have persuaded them to make an award of something between 4% and 5%.

The NHS Pay Review Body, which advises ministers, is understood to have recommended that all 1.5 million NHS staff across the UK covered by the longstanding Agenda for Change agreement – which covers everyone bar doctors and dentists – get a 5% rise.

However, the government is likely to provoke a row with NHS England by refusing to cover the cost of any award over 3%, a ploy that could cost the service up to £1.8bn.

Earlier this month, NHS England took the unusual step of warning publicly that any such move by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) and the Treasury would compel it to reduce investment in key areas, including cancer and primary care.

“Whether NHS staff get 4%, 4.5%