Next Bitcoin Halving Just Over One Year Away – Here’s What Could Happen to the BTC Price

cryptonews.com:

The next Bitcoin halving, where the BTC reward delved out to network validators per block mined will be halved, is coming up in just over one year and this could be a key theme in the Bitcoin market in the coming quarters. That’s because past halvings have consistently had a huge price impact.

For reference, the current Bitcoin block reward is around 6.25 BTC, with blocks taking an average of around 10 minutes to mine. In April 2024, this block reward will be slowed to 3.125 BTC, slowing Bitcoin’s inflation rate from around 2.0% to around 1.0%. Bitcoin’s inflation rate is designed to continue falling and tends towards zero in order to ensure that the BTC supply never surpasses 21 million.

There have so far been three Bitcoin halving events, the first in November 2012, the second in July 2016 and the most recent one in April 2020. All three have proceeded massive run-ups in the Bitcoin price. At the time of the 2012 halving, Bitcoin was trading around $12. Within around one year, it had rallied above $1,000.

The second halving took place when Bitcoin’s price was around $650. Within less than a year and a half, Bitcoin’s price had reached $19,000. Finally, in the 2020 halving took place when Bitcoin’s price was under $9,000. Prices then went on to hit record highs in November 2021 of $69,000.

Bitcoin has thus posted gains from the date of the halving to the next market peak of roughly 83x, 29x and 8x. Unsurprisingly, with Bitcoin maturing as an asset class and having enjoyed substantial growth in its market capitalization, the rate of its post-halving gains has slowed and could yet slow further.

Maybe the 2024 halving could result in a more modest 2-3x gain when looking at Bitcoin’s peak price in the post-2024 halving period.