Kamala Harris and Donald Trump Tied at 49% Odds on Polymarket
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are now deadlocked at 49% odds on Polymarket as bettors try to forecast the next U.S. president.
The race represents the largest betting pool on the crypto prediction platform, with over $541 million at stake.
The development follows Harris’s announcement of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, a choice that surprised many Polymarket users who had expected Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.
As of the latest, both Harris and Walz, along with Trump and his running mate, J.D. Vance from Ohio, were campaigning in Michigan.
Kamala Harris is now tied with Trump. pic.twitter.com/04dQx3kWBl
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) August 7, 2024
Harris’s odds have been on an upward trajectory since July 21, when US President Joe Biden withdrew from the race.
At that time, Harris’s odds were a modest 30%, while Trump led with 64%.
Biden, recovering from COVID-19 amidst rumors of his withdrawal, saw his chances plummet to 7%.
Prediction markets like Polymarket are often regarded as valuable indicators of probabilities and market sentiment, differing from traditional public opinion polls.
However, participants in these markets are self-selecting, and Polymarket, in particular, attracts a heavy crypto-user base, leveraging Polygon, a layer-2 scaling solution on the Ethereum blockchain.
Polymarket’s odds are known for their swift response to breaking news, as demonstrated by the platform’s reaction to the recent assassination attempt on Trump.
Conversely, Harris’s unexpected pick of Walz over Shapiro highlights that prediction markets can occasionally falter.
Polymarket has seen a surge in traffic and popularity, particularly driven by the presidential race and U.S. political events.
A
Read more on cryptonews.com
