Here’s why Bitcoin price could tap $21K before Friday’s $510M BTC options expiry
Bitcoin (BTC) has been trying to break above the $20,500 resistance for the past 35 days, with the latest failed attempt on Oct. 6. Meanwhile, bears have displayed strength on four different occasions after BTC tested levels below $18,500 during that period.
Investors are still unsure whether $18,200 was really the bottom because the support level weakens each time it is tested. That is why it’s important for bulls to keep the momentum during this week’s $510 million options expiry.
The Oct. 21 options expiry is especially relevant because Bitcoin bears can profit $80 million by suppressing BTC below $19,000.
The open interest for the Oct. 21 options expiry is $510 million, but the actual figure will be lower since bears were overly-optimistic. These traders completely missed the mark placing bearish bets at $17,500 and lower after BTC dumped below $19,000 on Oct. 13.
The 0.77 call-to-put ratio shows the dominance of the $290 million put (sell) open interest against the $220 million call (buy) options. Nevertheless, as Bitcoin stands near $19,000, most bearish bets will likely become worthless.
If Bitcoin's price remains above $19,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Oct. 21, only 4% of these put (sell) options will be available. This difference happens because a right to sell Bitcoin at $18,000 or $19,000 is worthless if BTC trades above that level on expiry.
Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of Bitcoin options contracts available on Oct. 21 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:
This crude estimate considers the put options used in bearish bets and the call options exclusively
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