Fidelity Director: Bitcoin Market Cap Could Reach $6 Trillion, a Quarter of ‘Monetary Gold’ Market
Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, has suggested that the Bitcoin (BTC) market cap has the potential to reach a quarter of the “monetary gold” market, hitting an impressive $6 trillion.
Jurrien Timmer’s forecast is based on the assumption that Bitcoin will solidify its position as digital gold and a reliable store of value.
Timmer’s analysis, shared in a Thursday post on X , draws a parallel between the portion of gold held for monetary purposes, estimated at 40% of the world’s above-ground gold, and the potential market value of Bitcoin.
Following up on my previous threads, here are some thoughts on Bitcoin’s potential market share vs gold: In the chart below I show the value of “monetary gold,” which is that share of gold held by central banks and private investors as a monetary asset (as opposed to jewelry or… pic.twitter.com/ZFJ3zHE4ka
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) February 22, 2024
Jurrien Timmer noted that the monetary gold, excluding jewelry or industrial uses, is currently valued at around $6 trillion, with central banks and private investors holding this significant share.
The Fidelity Director argued that Bitcoin could capture a substantial slice of this market, leveraging its current valuation of $1 trillion as a foundation for further growth.
“I estimate that Bitcoin will eventually capture around a quarter of the monetary gold market,” he wrote.
“At 40%, monetary gold is currently worth around $6 trillion, while Bitcoin is worth $1 trillion.”
To assess the credibility of Timmer’s forecast, it is important to consider the inherent characteristics of Bitcoin that align it with gold’s monetary role.
These include the scarcity resulting from its limited supply and its
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