China consumption shows 'no sign' of a strong V-shaped recovery, McKinsey says

cnbc.com:

BEIJING — China's consumer isn't going to be spending big anytime soon, which means companies need to be more strategic to tap what's still a massive market, according to McKinsey.

«I'm hopeful we will see an incremental improvement over the next year,» said Daniel Zipser, leader of McKinsey's Asia consumer and retail practice.

«But there are no signs it should be a strong, V-shaped recovery,» said Zipser, who is also a senior partner at McKinsey and author of a new report called "China Consumption: Start of a New Era."

China's retail sales have generally remained lackluster since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020. Despite the end of Covid controls at the end of last year, falling global demand for Chinese goods and a slump in the real estate market have weighed on the country's overall economy.

Looking ahead, growth is expected to slow. The government is tackling long-standing issues in the real estate sector, while tensions with major trade partners such as the U.S. have risen.

All that has kept Chinese consumer sentiment at the same level it was about 12 months ago, when the country was still living under Covid restrictions, Zipser pointed out in a phone interview Thursday.

«The overall economic recovery and the recovery of the property market has not been what people hoped for,» he said. «People are aware of the geopolitical tensions, very aware of… exports declining.»

«They don't yet have the confidence this will be different [in] 2024, 2025.»

Despite the overall gloom, there's a divergence in how Chinese consumer companies are affected.

McKinsey's analysis of 80 publicly listed consumer companies that generate most of their revenue from mainland China found a significant divergence — many saw