Bloomberg Analysts Predict Over 90% Chance of US Approval for Bitcoin ETF, Polymarket Trims Odds to 83%
Bloomberg analysts are increasingly optimistic about the approval of a spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States, with the odds now exceeding 90%.
In a recent post, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas commented on the likelihood of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rejecting proposals following a flurry of updated filings.
Balchunas stated that he would assign a mere 5% chance of rejection, leaving a small possibility open for such outcomes.
Well said although I probably go with 5% at this point. But you gotta leave a little window open for these things.
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) January 6, 2024
Back in November, he had initially estimated the odds at 90%, citing positive signs from the updated forms submitted by ETF providers at the time.
On the other hand, participants on Polymarket, a platform where users can place bets on various outcomes, have displayed a less optimistic view regarding the approval timeline.
The betting market on Polymarket suggests that the odds of approval before January 15 have decreased, with participants wagering around $500,000 on the approval being delayed or even denied.
This has led to a decline from last week’s 90% likelihood of approval.
Much of the crypto market remains hopeful that key decisions from the SEC this week will pave the way for the launch of the first spot bitcoin ETFs. These ETFs are targeted at professional investors in the United States.
The introduction of regulated offerings is expected to attract significant demand for bitcoin. This decision can potentially become one of the most significant catalysts in the asset’s history.
As reported , BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager and one of the contenders
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