Bitcoin halving analysis hints at $24K bottom before the end of 2022
One of the most popular topics of debate within the crypto community revolves around the Bitcoin (BTC) four-year halving cycle and the effect it has on the long-term price of the top cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin price failed to hit the long-predicted $100,000 level in 2021 and many crypto analysts now find themselves wondering about the outlook for the next six to 12 months.
Currently, BTC price trades below $40,000 and various technical analysis metrics suggest that further downside is more likely that a recovery to the $40,000 to $45,000 range. Let's take a look at what analysts' views are on Bitcoin's longer-term prospects.
A general overview of the four-year cycle theory was discussed in a Twitter thread by crypto analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user "Wolves of Crypto," whose analysis indicates that “the most probable bear market bottom for Bitcoin will take place in November/December 2022.”
This projection assumes that the peak BTC price of $68,789 back on November 10, 2021 marked the high of the last cycle and that the market is currently in the corrective phase typically seen after a cycle top.
The analyst said,
Should this model play out, the price of BTC will breakout above its previous all-time high sometime around August or September of 2023.
The possibility that the bottom in BTC could come before the end of 2022 was hinted at by Willy Woo, an independent market analyst who posted the following chart suggesting that the “Orange coin seems a bit undervalued here.”
The “Highly Liquid Supply Shock” metric quantifies on-chain demand and supply, and shows its relative movement in standard deviations from the long-term average.
As shown on the chart above, each time the oscillator dipped as low as the current reading, the
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