3 reasons why Bitcoin price is clinging to $38,000

cointelegraph.com:

Bitcoin (BTC) has been unable to break from the 26-day-long descending channel. Investors are uncomfortable holding volatile assets after the United States Federal Reserve pledged to reduce its $9 trillion balance sheet.

While inflation has been surging worldwide, the first signs of an economic downturn showed as United Kingdom's retail sales fell 1.4% in March. Moreover, Japan's industrial production dropped 1.7% in March. Lastly, the U.S. gross domestic product fell 1.4% in the first quarter of 2022.I

This bearish macroeconomic scenario can partially explain why Bitcoin has been on a down-trend since early April. Still, one needs to analyze how professional traders position themselves, and derivatives markets provide some excellent indicators.Bitcoin/USD 12-hour chart at FTX. Source: TradingView

To understand whether the current bearish trend reflects top traders' sentiment, one should analyze Bitcoin's futures contracts premium, which is also known as a "basis."

Unlike a perpetual contract, these fixed-calendar futures do not have a funding rate, so their price will differ vastly from regular spot exchanges. A bearish market sentiment causes the three-month futures contract to trade at a 5% or lower annualized premium (basis).

On the other hand, a neutral market should present a 5% to 12% basis, reflecting market participants' unwillingness to lock in Bitcoin for cheap until the trade settles.

The above chart shows that Bitcoin's futures premium has been below 5% since April 6, indicating that futures market participants are reluctant to open leverage long (buy) positions.

To exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument, traders should also analyze the options markets. The 25% delta skew compares equivalent call